Social Studies Club Makes Presidential Prediction

Ryan Nicol ’25

Editors note: The following article describes the findings of the senior members of the Social Studies Club when they discussed the likely outcome of the election in the “swing states.” It is not an endorsement of any political candidate’

Every day, especially during a presidential election cycle, we consume media that is biased—yes, even Tarmac sometimes. Most high school students, if surveyed, would pick the candidate of the party they have always identified with, or the one they hear more good things about in the media. At Chaminade High School, while this still holds true for most students, the senior division of the Social Studies Club is a source of weekly, bipartisan discussion on many issues, even if its members have their own strong opinions on them. So, 12 days before Election Night in the United States on November 5, 2024, the seniors of the Social Studies Club made a few fully unbiased predictions for whether former President Donald Trump or incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris would win each of the swing states for this cycle, making a presidential prediction they are confident in as a result of research and debate.

Before getting into the state predictions, we first need to briefly recap how the Electoral College works. In the United States, the people pick the President every four years—kind of. Each state holds a vote between groups of electors, people aligned with a specific party who pledge to vote for another candidate. When a candidate’s electors get more votes in a state than any other group of electors, that group gets sent to the real election, made up of 538 voters, in which a presidential candidate must reach 270 votes to win the presidency. As we go down the list of swing states—states that could “swing” in either party’s direction—their electoral vote count will be listed. The more electoral votes, the more important a state is for a candidate.

Nevada – 6 Electoral Votes

Nevada has long been a state aligned with the Democratic Party. In each of the three most recent elections, the state has gone blue for Barack Obama, then Hillary Clinton, then Joe Biden. Its state legislature is blue in both houses, both its senators are Democrats, and the Democrats control three of the four seats in the House of Representatives. The only thing leaning Republican here is that the Nevada governor is a member of the GOP. Otherwise, there is not much to suggest that this state will swing to the right. It has been a controversial state for its slow process of counting votes, especially in 2020, but the Republican Party still lost by a significant margin.

Prediction: Nevada is won by Harris. Nine seniors picked Harris, three picked Trump, and two abstained.

Wisconsin – 10 Electoral Votes

Wisconsin is part of the infamous Blue Wall—a group of states that has consistently voted for Democrats in the past, which Trump flipped Republican in 2016, only for Biden to win them back in 2020. The other two Blue Wall states, mentioned later, are Michigan and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin typically votes to the left of the other Blue Wall states, however a few factors could change that. Firstly, it borders Minnesota, the home state of Governor Tim Walz, who is running for Vice President under Harris on the Democratic ticket. If Walz doesn’t do much for the area, then many often point to abortion being a winning issue for the left in the area.

Prediction: Wisconsin is won by Harris. Twelve seniors picked Harris, zero picked Trump, and two abstained.

Arizona – 11 Electoral Votes

Arizona has long been a Republican state. However, Joe Biden flipped it for the Democrats in 2020, winning by 0.3% of the vote. The biggest city in Arizona, Phoenix, is the

fastest-growing city in the nation, with population booms among some minority groups that have typically voted blue in the past. Yet, those groups have actually been shifting red according to some sources. More importantly, Arizona is a state on the southern border with Mexico, and in an election where illegal immigration is a winning topic for Republicans, it is reasonable to believe it could flip back.

Prediction: Arizona is won by Trump. Two seniors picked Harris, ten picked Trump, and two abstained.

Michigan – 15 Electoral Votes

Michigan is the second of three Blue Wall states. Detroit typically leans far to the left, but the issues of the election may dampen its influence. In Wisconsin, Republicans are likely on the losing end of the abortion issue, but in Michigan, it is not as much of a high-profile topic as others. In this midwestern state, many workers are concerned about job creation and the lowering of inflation, as well as national security—all things that Republicans have been better at promising than Democrats.

Prediction: Michigan is won by Trump. Two seniors picked Harris, nine picked Trump, and three abstained.

North Carolina – 16 Electoral Votes

North Carolina, similarly to former swing state Florida, is home to many conservative residents who left northeastern blue states. The pattern of migration will provide a likely Republican shift, a way in which the state has voted consistently in the past. In fact, the only thing of question for the GOP in North Carolina is that Democrat Josh Stein is dominating in polls for the governorship over conservative challenger Mark Robinson.

Despite this, most other factors point to the Old North State going red once again.

Prediction: North Carolina is won by Trump. Zero seniors picked Harris, 14 picked Trump, and zero abstained.

Georgia – 16 Electoral Votes

Atlanta, Georgia, is very similar to Phoenix, Arizona. Phoenix, the aforementioned fastest-growing city, has the trait of a growing population in common with Atlanta. Like Phoenix, the share of minority voters in Atlanta is increasing, and they have historically voted blue. Regardless, Georgia is a former member of the deep red southern conglomerate, and while it flipped to Biden in 2020, it was the closest race in the whole election. Trump seems to have won back some voters, and given the small margin, and the common trend of voting for the opposite party after a presidential term, it is likely that Georgia flips back.

Prediction: Georgia is won by Trump. Zero seniors picked Harris, 14 picked Trump, and zero abstained.

Pennsylvania – 19 Electoral Votes

Pennsylvania is known as the Keystone State—and in the 2024 presidential election, while carrying 19 electoral votes, the name could never be more true. It figures to be the closest of the key Blue Wall states, and nearly all election forecasts believe that whoever wins Pennsylvania will almost certainly take the election. With the state flipping back to Biden in 2020, it has been one of the hardest fought states, but during this cycle, one party might have an edge—the Republicans.

Senator JD Vance of Ohio represents a state bordering Pennsylvania, and he is running as the second name on the Republican ticket. The state has recently elected other officeholders of the Democratic Party, which could favor Republicans given the propensity for swing states to vote for the inverse of the party in power. Many of the previously said

winning issues for Republicans are important here—inflation, unemployment, and national security. To top it all off, over the summer, Donald Trump was almost assassinated in Butler, Pennsylvania, only to emerge from the secret service huddle being portrayed as a hero by his supporters. The Democratic Party will certainly try to win votes here, but they do not have as long of a list of advantages as the right does.

Prediction: Pennsylvania is won by Trump. Two seniors picked Harris, ten picked Trump, and two abstained.

Final Prediction

This election will likely be one of the closest we have seen in a long time, and it has come down to the wire. This country is not as polarized as the biased media often says, and these seven key swing states could truly go either way. There is no way to know for sure before the votes are tallied, but the senior members of the Social Studies Club have declared a decisive victory in the race to 270.

Prediction: Donald Trump is elected the 47th President of the United States. In total, Trump wins 296 electoral votes, and Harris wins 242.